So, as I’m sure you know, Iran directly attacked Israel tonight with drones, cruise missiles, and (reportedly) a few ballistic missiles.
Interestingly and fortunately, Israel, US, and British assets intercepted a huge percentage of the incoming projectiles before the Iron Dome finished off most of the remainder.
As of the time of writing this, the only casualty seems to be a single injured 10 year old boy and a number of ballistic missile hits on an Israeli airbase where they launched their airstrike in Damascus last week.
And suddenly…Iran is saying it’s done and considered the matter settled.
This is all intriguing and very frightening.
First, this is the first ever direct attack on Israel by Iran. Iran has supported proxies against Israel for decades but never attacked them directly. This is truly historical.
Second, Iran’s attack was pathetic. While they sent probably a half billion dollars worth of assets towards Israel, it was started by launching very slow moving drones giving all of the various countries lots of time to get their planes in the air to intercept them and Israel to get its people safely into well prepared bunkers. All in all it was an incredibly impotent attack with little to no actual damage inflicted.
Now, what’s interesting about this is Iran reportedly has around 4,000 ballistic missiles. Had they wanted to do much more damage, they probably could have.
Considering they went to the UN immediately after and essentially begged Israel and the US (rather hilariously, in all caps) not to respond leads me to believe this was an attack designed to save face inside Iran, not actually cause massive casualties. (Not to mention starting with the drones…they basically gave everyone hours of warning and we all know surprise is a key element of a successful attack like this). Another interesting observation is there were no simultaneous attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon or from Syria. Had this new axis wanted to severely hurt Israel, they definitely could have.
Meanwhile, I’m shocked at how quiet world leaders are after an unprecedented military attack on Israel. Every Western leader should have been on TV strongly condemning Iran and nary a word from even Biden. Western leadership should be ashamed.
The one leader to make a strong statement was Putin who said Russia would come to Iran’s aid if the US were to attack them, which we should pay close attention to and is exactly what I said would happen the other day.
This is not the first time Iran has launched a half-hearted attack intended only to save face. They did something extremely similar after the US killed one of their generals by attacking a US airbase in Iraq, again with no casualties, and then went back into pretending to be strong.
Now, by all means, after successfully repelling such a significant attack (which is really a testament to the incredible air defense systems in the area), Israel has every right to strike back and strike back hard. There are some reports planning for this is underway.
But we all know what would happen if Israel were to bomb Iran…Western media and their allies would then condemn Israel instead of rightfully condemning Iran. Not to mention their use of the consulate in Damascus for military purposes a few weeks ago was against international law.
It always astonishes me given how smart Israel is but they let themselves lose the propaganda war, as they have been with Gaza. There was a larger outcry from the world over the accidental bombing of some aid workers than over Iran’s attack on Israel tonight, which is reprehensible.
Meanwhile, the typical US war hawks are out saying their typical BS that the US needs to hit Iran immediately. John Bolton is practically screaming on CNN.
While I think Iran deserves repercussions, I think hitting them militarily would be a mistake. It would begin a tit-for-tat that would almost certainly bring the US into a conflict, which then brings Russia in, and then we have WW3. We stand at the precipice tonight and will for the next few days.
I’m not often one to say this and I can’t believe I am, but I’d really like for cool heads to prevail in this matter. Israel can win the propaganda war by restraining itself in this case. And Iran looks weak and feckless to anyone paying attention.
We all know it’s when you punch the bully back that you get in trouble.