This is a close election fraught with strong feelings on both sides. While Trump has taken a significant lead in betting odds and is now leading in the polls in every swing state, a lot can happen between now and Election Day. However, he is outperforming himself from 2020 by about 8-10 points in every important state including several he lost by under 1%. If history re-occurs, Trump will be elected President.
However, I’ve previously written about my greatest fear and it seems to be coming true. Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona have all said they will need 2-5 days to count their votes. First off, that’s ridiculous. Florida is significantly more populated than any of these states and they expect to have all votes counted within an hour of polls closing. 3rd world countries with huge populations can hand count their ballots same day. My standard is never to attribute to magic what can be explained by incompetence, but this is too much. If Trump has a lead in the electoral college and these states were to “switch” to Harris in the days following, I’d be horrified by the likely reaction and be very worried if the results were accurate.
Swing states must absolutely do everything they can to count their votes quickly and accurately if only to make sure there is no chance of nefarious activity. Already in right wing circles, accusations regarding these announcements are causing significant alarm, and I’m alarmed with them since the single most important aspect of this election is that we know beyond a shadow of a doubt who the actual winner is.